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世界洞察:美国恢复债务上限,但没有明确避免潜在违约的计划

2021-8-2 16:38


华盛顿,8月1日(新华社电)——在暂停两年之后,美国债务上限于周日正式恢复,而议员们目前还没有明确的计划来避免今年晚些时候可能出现的违约。


作为2019年8月通过的两党预算协议的一部分,国会将债务上限暂停至周六。周日,债务上限恢复到暂停期间的所有借款水平,截至6月底,债务上限已升至28.5万亿美元。


债务限额,通常被称为债务上限,是美国政府被授权为履行其现有法律义务而借款的总额,包括社会保障和医疗保险福利、国债利息和其他支付。


如果没有新的立法暂停或提高债务上限,美国财政部将无法发行任何新的债务。财政部现在将开始采取所谓的“非常措施”,以防止美国违约。


但是,由于新冠疫情相关的不确定性很大,美国财政部目前无法预测特别措施将持续多久。


美国财政部长耶伦在近期致国会领导人的信中称,"在国会9月中旬休会结束后,现金和特别措施可能很快耗尽。"警告称,如果不履行这些法律义务,将对美国经济和所有美国人的生计“造成不可弥补的伤害”。


美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)最近也警告称,除非国会提高或暂停债务上限,否则美国将在10月或11月面临违约风险。


但拜登政府和国会民主党人还没有决定如何解决债务上限问题,因为议员们将在8月休会一个多月。


分析人士说,如果民主党希望通过提高或延缓债务上限的立法,他们将需要10名共和党参议员的支持,以避免参议院的阻挠。


据美国政治网站the Hill报道,一些参议院共和党人计划要求大幅削减开支,以换取他们支持提高债务上限的立法。


报导引述参议院共和党党鞭John Thune的话称:"我完全支持支出上限,尤其是非国防的国内可自由支配支出。"


但民主党目前无意就开支达成任何协议,以赢得共和党的支持。他们指责共和党人同意在特朗普执政期间借数万亿美元为富人减税。


参议院财政委员会主席、来自俄勒冈州的民主党人罗恩·怀登在推特上说:“参议院共和党人在为帮助富人变得更富而造成2万亿美元赤字的问题上没有退缩。”


“现在他们把我们的经济当作人质,因为他们不想为他们的亿万富翁福利买单,”怀登说。


没有共和党的帮助,民主党可以利用所谓的预算和解程序提高债务上限,这只需要在参议院获得51票的简单多数票。


但共和党人可能会在明年的中期选举中,利用对债务上限的党派立场投票,攻击民主党人超支和债务增加。


目前还不清楚两党是否会在今年晚些时候再次陷入债务上限僵局,或者两党是否会就提高债务上限达成协议。


2011年,标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)以债务上限问题上的政治边缘政策为由,首次下调了美国的信用评级。华盛顿特区的两党政策中心(Bipartisan Policy Center)说,再次下调评级可能会给市场带来更大的混乱。根据智库。


与此同时,据无党派监督组织“负责任联邦预算委员会”(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)称,美国债务违约,甚至是人们认为存在违约威胁的情况,都可能对经济产生严重的负面影响。


"实际违约将扰乱全球金融市场并造成混乱," fomc称,并补充称,随着投资者停止或缩减对美国公债的投资,利率将上升,对美国公债的需求将下降。


即使是在僵局期间出现违约的威胁,也会增加美国的借贷成本。问责局估计,2013年债务上限僵局导致一年的额外成本在3800万美元到7000多万美元之间。


耶伦说:“这就是为什么两党的总统或财政部长从来没有支持美国任何债务违约的建议。”


她说:“我恭敬地敦促国会尽快采取行动,以保护美国的完全信用和信誉。”

WASHINGTON, Aug. 1 (Xinhua) -- The United States debt limit was officially reinstated on Sunday after a two-year suspension, while lawmakers have no clear plan yet on how to avoid a potential default later this year.

As part of a bipartisan budget deal enacted in August 2019, Congress suspended the debt limit through Saturday. On Sunday, the debt limit was reinstated at a level covering all borrowing that occurred during the suspension, which had risen to 28.5 trillion U.S. dollars as of the end of June.

The debt limit, commonly called the debt ceiling, is the total amount of money that the U.S. government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including social security and medicare benefits, interest on the national debt, and other payments.

Without new legislation to suspend or increase the debt limit, the U.S. Treasury Department will not be able to issue any new debt. The department will now begin taking so-called "extraordinary measures" to prevent the U.S. from defaulting.

However, the U.S. Treasury currently cannot foresee how long the extraordinary measures will last due to considerable uncertainty related to the pandemic.

"There are scenarios in which cash and extraordinary measures could be exhausted soon after Congress returns from recess" in mid-September, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a recent letter to congressional leaders, warning that failure to meet these legal obligations would "cause irreparable harm" to the U.S. economy and the livelihoods of all Americans.

The Congressional Budget Office also warned recently that the U.S. is at risk of a default in October or November unless the Congress raises or suspends the debt limit.

But the Biden administration and congressional Democrats haven't decided how to address the debt limit as lawmakers will depart for more than a month for the August recess.

If Democrats want to pass legislation to raise or suspend the debt limit in regular order, they will need the support of 10 Republican senators to avoid a filibuster in the upper chamber, analysts said.

Some Senate Republicans plan to demand major spending reductions in exchange for their support of legislation to raise the debt limit, according to The Hill, a U.S. political website.

"I'm all for spending caps, especially on nondefense domestic discretionary spending," Senate Republican Whip John Thune was quoted as saying.

But Democrats currently have no intention of cutting any deal on spending to win Republican support. They accuse the Republicans of agreeing to borrow trillions of dollars to enact tax cuts for the rich during the Trump administration.

"Senate Republicans didn't flinch when it came to blowing a 2 trillion dollar hole in the deficit to help the rich get richer," Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden, a Democrat from Oregon, said on the Twitter.

"Now they're holding our economy hostage because they don't want to pay the bill for their billionaire handouts," Wyden said.

Without help from Republicans, Democrats could use the so-called budget reconciliation process to raise the debt limit, which would only require a simple majority of 51 votes in the Senate.

But Republicans could use a party-line vote on the debt limit to attack Democrats for overspending and higher debt in next year's midterm elections.

It's not clear whether the two parties will have another debt limit standoff later this year or if there will be a bipartisan deal to raise the debt limit.

In 2011, Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating for the first time, citing the political brinkmanship on the debt limit. Another downgrade could bring even greater market disruption, said the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington-D.C. based think tank.

Meanwhile, a default on U.S. debt, or even the perceived threat of one, could have serious negative economic implications, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan watchdog group.

"An actual default would roil global financial markets and create chaos," the Committee said, adding interest rates would rise and demand for U.S. Treasuries would drop as investors stop or scale back investments in Treasury securities.

Even the threat of default during a standoff would increase U.S. borrowing costs. The Government Accountability Office estimated that the 2013 debt limit impasse led to additional costs over a one-year period of between 38 million dollars and more than 70 million dollars.

"This is why no President or Treasury Secretary of either party has ever countenanced even the suggestion of a default on any obligation of the United States," Yellen said.

"I respectfully urge Congress to protect the full faith and credit of the United States by acting as soon as possible," she added.

来自: xinhua