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国际货币基金组织首席经济学家表示,新兴市场无法承受“缩减恐慌”的重演

2021-8-30 11:32

 

新华社华盛顿8月29日电国际货币基金组织(IMF)首席经济学家戈皮纳特(Gita Gopinath)警告称,新兴市场无法承受2013年美国央行准备退出货币刺激政策时发生的“缩减恐慌”(taper tantrum)市场崩溃的重演。


戈皮纳特周日在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示,"他们(新兴市场)正遭受许多不同方式的打击,这就是为什么他们无法承受主要央行引发金融市场某种程度的恐慌。"


戈皮纳特发表此番言论之前,美国联邦储备委员会(美联储,Fed)主席鲍威尔周五表示,如果美国经济总体上符合预期,美联储可能在今年开始缩减资产购买规模。


Gopinath在强调中低收入国家面临的经济压力的同时,警告称,如果通胀在美国成为一个更有害的问题,并迫使美国突然采取收紧货币政策的举措,可能会带来潜在后果。


“我们关心的是一个场景,你会通胀远高于预期,这需要一个更快的货币政策正常化在美国,”她说,增加中央银行需要提供一个频繁发生的“超级清晰的沟通”对他们的政策路线。


2013年,当时任美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)首次提到美联储缩减资产购买步伐的想法时,美国国债收益率突然走高,新兴市场资产遭到大幅抛售。


国际金融研究所(Institute of International Finance)经济学家乔纳森•福尔顿(Jonathan Fortun)在本月早些时候的一份报告中表示:“新兴市场仍然容易受到美联储缩减购债规模的影响,因为对美国经济的支持减少可能导致全球金融状况收紧。”


Fortun称:"尽管前景黯淡,但我们认为,危机蔓延的风险没有2018年新兴市场抛售或2013年缩减恐慌期间那么严重。" Fortun指出,未来数月新兴市场政策可信度将至关重要,尤其是如果利率上升的话。


美联储承诺将保持其基准利率在接近零的创纪录低位不变,同时继续其资产购买计划,至少以目前每月1200亿美元的速度,直到就业和通胀方面取得“实质性进展”。

 

WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 (Xinhua) -- Gita Gopinath, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has warned that emerging markets cannot afford a repeat of the "taper tantrum" market disruption that occurred in 2013 as the U.S. central bank prepares to withdraw monetary stimulus.

"They (emerging markets) are getting hit in many different ways, which is why they just cannot afford a situation where you have some sort of a tantrum of financial markets originating from the major central banks," Gopinath said Sunday in an interview with the Financial Times.

Gopinath's comments came after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that the Fed could start tapering asset purchases this year if the U.S. economy evolved broadly as anticipated.

While highlighting the economic pressures on low and middle-income countries, Gopinath warned of the potential fallout should inflation become a more pernicious issue in the United States and force a sudden move to tighten monetary policy.

"We are concerned about a scenario where you would have inflation come up much higher than expected, and that would require a much quicker normalization of monetary policy in the U.S.," she said, adding central bankers needed to provide "super clear communication" on a frequent basis about their policy path forward.

Emerging market assets sold off significantly amid a sudden push higher in U.S. Treasury yields in 2013, when then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke first mentioned the idea of tapering the Fed's pace of asset purchases.

"Emerging markets remain vulnerable to tapering by the Federal Reserve, as less support for the U.S. economy could tighten financial conditions across the globe," Jonathan Fortun, economist at the Institute of International Finance, said in a note earlier this month.

"Despite the bleak outlook, we believe that contagion risk is less severe than during the EM (emerging market) sell-off in 2018 or during the 2013 taper tantrum," Fortun said, noting the importance of emerging market policy credibility will be paramount in the months ahead, especially if interest rates rise.

The Fed has pledged to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the record-low level of near zero, while continuing its asset purchase program at least at the current pace of 120 billion U.S. dollars per month until "substantial further progress" has been made on employment and inflation.

 

来自: xinhua